تعیین اطلس احتمال وقوع حداقل دمای استان فارس با استفاده از آمار هواشناسی

In the present research, for the development of Fars province minimum temperature atlas, minimum daily temperature data of 20 evaporative stations of Fars Regional Water Organization and five synoptic stations of Fars Meteorological Organization were used. At first, two starting times were selected for all of the stations. The first was the first day of Farvardin for analyzing the spring frost and the secend was the first day of Mehr for analyzing the autumn and winter frost. Also, the temperature range of 0 to –1.5 was classified as mild frost or freeze, the temperature range of -1.5 to –3 as the moderate frost or freeze and temperature below –3 as severe frost or freeze. The data of minimum temperatures, the first and the last days in which the three temperature ranges occurred and the day of the lowest temperature based on the two starting times were recorded. The selected number of days (dates) were fitted to the distribution functions by SMADA software and the best distribution function was identified using the statistical parameter Root Mean Square. The best fitted distribution functions were Pearson type III and log Pearson type III. Then, based on the fitted distribution function, the number of days for the occurrence of the first and last frost and number of days for the occurrence of the first lowest temperature were determined at 50 and 70% probability levels. Finally, each of these occurrence dates was plotted with Surfer software using the geographical positions of each station (longitude and latitude) for Fars province. Based on these plotted maps, the best days of planting and harvesting of the crops can be determined throughout the Fars province.